Tuesday, August 25, 2009

What's really going on with the Housing Market

The past few days have seen a flurry of news articles about how housing prices are "up" again. What exactly defines "up"? Just a shrewd bit of reporting. According to this Reuters article, prices are up 1.5 in June vs. May. The article does state that housing prices are still way down year over year. Since when did we start to compare individual months? Could it be that housing prices were up in June since May was a cooler month, and warm weather is known to draw out shoppers? I don't know. Maybe people were buying less foreclosure homes in June vs. May, causing the numbers to turn positive. Who really knows?

What I do know is that the only numbers that matter are year-over-year (YoY) numbers. Until this turns positive, don't believe for a second that a housing recovery is anywhere close.

Ironically, this article states that "23% of mortgages are delinquent in Florida for the second quarter of 2009".

I have a feeling this housing market correction is in the 3rd inning of a 9 inning game.